Traditionally, Alberta’s Progressive Conservative party has been a bit of an anomaly. In most jurisdictions when a governing party has led for too long, grown too stale and out of touch, they are unceremoniously replaced by the voters at the ballot box. The electorate effectively ‘renews’ government by firing the last group to hold power and votes in a new party.
The P.C. regime, however, has been able to reinvent itself without ever relinquishing control of the Legislature. When the Peter Lougheed era ended, the party was reborn under the Getty banner. When that proved almost fatal to the Tories and it looked as if night was going to descend on their time in power, along came Ralph Klein to resurrect the moribund juggernaut.
Many pundits expected history to repeat again when a new leader was chosen to replace the hapless Ed Stelmach. Under Stelmach’s stewardship, the P.C. party became glaringly adrift to the point that the party once again faced danger of having their reign end, this time from a challenger from the right.
Where current circumstances and history differ is in the details. As opposed to previous times when the party exercised renewal, the Progressive Conservatives have actual and legitimate opposition parties nipping at their heel this time around. They also have a longer history of dirty laundry to stickhandle, on top of an ever-growing public perception that the party has run out of ideas and that it is, after more than 40 years, time for a change.
Perhaps the biggest and most important difference this time is their leader. The last time the P.C. government was staring at the abyss they received a gift in King Ralph. Very few people could have taken over a party so damaged by bad business deals and a bumbling outgoing leader, turn around their direction, and lead them to a string of impressive successive victories.
This time, the P.C. party is relying on that same magic from Alison Redford. Judging by her first days in office, one thing has become crystal clear: she is no Ralph Klein. Her party knows it, the media knows it, and as time goes on more and more voters know it.
She has already carved out a reputation as a waffler, going back and forth on several issues from having a fall sitting to finally having an investigation into our train-wreck of a health care system.
Insiders say she is scrambling, sending mixed messages about what to expect under her Premiership. From big-spending promises to throwing out vaguely rightwing policies, the impression is that of a leader trying to be something she is not, or worse, that she doesn’t know what she is.
P.C. members I’ve talked to are becoming wary. Some are concerned about their party’s prospects come the next election. They know that Alberta voters cannot be fooled, and if they are given the choice between a pretend conservative leader of a formerly conservative party, and a real conservative leader of an actual conservative party, they will chose the authentic one every time.
“We’ve become very adept at portraying confidence,” said one P.C. member. “To the outside, everything is nice and peaceful. Behind the scenes, you have the establishment on one side and the new leader and her people on the other. She was an outsider and she won. And there’s only so much change she can accomplish when all she has are Stelmach MLA’s to draw from.”
In the time that remains before the writ is dropped, Alison Redford must somehow figure out how to once again renew the Progressive Conservative party using old spare parts left behind by her predecessor, and without the punch of a Ralph Klein-style persona and reputation.
For the Alberta P.C.s, the cat may finally have run out of lives.
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