Harper Does a Balancing Act

It appears the apprenticeship of Stephen Harper is complete.

After holding the Prime Minister spot in the longest-running minority government in Canadian history, the Conservative leader is displaying evidence of an understanding of the political system.

Put bluntly, Harper has learned how to play the game.

While the Liberals and the NDP continue their ‘attack Alberta and its evil oil-based economy to win the hearts and minds of the East’ and the farcical ‘Harper has a scary hidden agenda’ strategies, Harper has engaged in a calculated balancing act during the current election campaign: portraying the Conservatives as the only ‘real’ federalist choice to Quebec voters and vowing more say in federal matters – such as the promise to rotate the national media regulator CRTC head position between an Anglophone and a Francophone - without losing too much support from his Conservative-entrenched Alberta and Western Canada support base.

Traditionally, Albertans have believed that Ottawa has given Quebec far too much power. There are a few historical examples of animosity between the two provinces, and each time the Harper team makes a Quebec-friendly move the blogosphere buzzes with angry Westerners.

In elections past, the focus was on Ontario as the primary battleground. The Harper Tories have learned that they were banging their heads against the stubbornly leftwing wall, hoping to convince the diehard socialist GTA to abandon their scandal-ridden Liberals.

Divide and conquer is now the strategy, and it could just mean a Conservative majority.

Of course, not is all rosy in Harperworld. The traditional Tory foot-in-mouth syndrome has made several appearances, including the embarrassingly unfunny statements by Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz regarding the recent deadly outbreak of Listeria.

But all in all, these haven’t had the same impact as previous campaigns (despite the efforts of the CBC and its usual election-time witch hunt).

The West-Quebec play comes at an opportune time, with Canada’s political left splintered in four. With Liberal leader Stephane Dion’s fatal mistake of making the ill-conceived environmental ‘Green Shift’ plan (read: carbon tax) as the main plank of his platform, added to his failure to create any kind of confidence in his leadership abilities, talk is that leftist voters could turn to the socialist NDP or even the Green Party (aka the environmental wing of the federal Liberals).

Rumours are that many traditional Liberal voters are willing to park their votes with one of the smaller parties this time around, knowing a humiliating loss would mean the end of Dion’s leadership and a new leader would be found.

Meanwhile over in Quebec, the leftwing separatist Bloc Quebecois began the campaign by abandoning their raison d’etre, namely Quebec separation. In effect, they announced themselves and their purpose for existence over. Now scrambling to attract the many voters looking to leave the Bloc for the Conservatives, they are falling all over themselves in a silly attempt at returning to sovereignty territory. It isn’t even a ‘too little, too late’ scenario. Quebec voters simply aren’t interested in separation. They would rather have a federalist choice that respects the differences and uniqueness of the French culture.

That is the angle Harper is playing to, and one that could be effective.

If Harper pulls it off and gets the thumbs-up from disenfranchised Quebec Liberal and Bloc Quebecois voters, without eroding too much of his base in the West, a majority victory will be his. Sphere: Related Content